JPMorgan: The inventory reduction in the wafer foundry industry will come to an end, and the production capacity of Chinese foundries is recovering quickly.

According to news from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily on the 20th, JPMorgan pointed out in its latest wafer foundry industry report that the inventory reduction in the wafer foundry industry will end, the industry's prosperity will broadly recover in the second half of 2024, and further strengthen in 2025. The industry reached its lowest point in the first quarter, and with the continuous rise in AI demand and the gradual recovery of non-AI demand, more importantly, urgent orders have started to appear, including large-size panel driver ICs, power management ICs, WiFi 5 and WiFi 6 chips, all of which indicate that the wafer foundry industry is emerging from the trough and moving towards recovery.

The utilization rate of Chinese wafer foundries is recovering quickly, mainly because Chinese fabless companies started adjusting their inventories earlier. After six consecutive quarters of active inventory reduction, inventories are gradually normalizing."

The DRAM price increase has paused, but HBM might drive another rise.

"According to a report by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, citing Nikkei News, the DRAM price increase paused in April due to the time needed to recover PC and smartphone demand. The wholesale prices (bulk transaction prices) of the benchmark products DDR4 4Gb and 8Gb remained flat for the second consecutive month in April 2024.

However, the industry anticipates that with the increase in demand and production of HBM, DRAM prices will rise. 'If HBM production increases, the production of other DRAMs will decrease, which will in turn push prices up,' pointed out an electronics product trading company. Some major manufacturers have already accepted the price increase requests from memory chip suppliers. A certain PC manufacturer indicated that the wholesale prices of DRAM from April to June will rise by 5-10% compared to January to March."

In the first quarter smartphone processor rankings: MediaTek ranked first, and Unisoc had the fastest growth

"According to a report by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, citing Nikkei News, the DRAM price increase paused in April due to the time needed to recover PC and smartphone demand. The wholesale prices (bulk transaction prices) of the benchmark products DDR4 4Gb and 8Gb remained flat for the second consecutive month in April 2024.

However, the industry anticipates that with the increase in demand and production of HBM, DRAM prices will rise. 'If HBM production increases, the production of other DRAMs will decrease, which will push prices up,' pointed out an electronics product trading company. Some major manufacturers have already accepted the price increase requests from memory chip suppliers. A certain PC manufacturer indicated that the wholesale prices of DRAM from April to June will rise by 5-10% compared to January to March."

Knometa: China is expected to lead in IC wafer production by 2026

According to foreign media SemiMedia, data from research firm Knometa Research indicates that by the end of 2023, the global semiconductor capacity share was 22.2% in South Korea, 22.0% in Taiwan, 19.1% in mainland China, 13.4% in Japan, 11.2% in the United States, and 4.8% in Europe.

The firm predicts that mainland China's semiconductor capacity share will gradually increase and rank first in the world by 2026. On the other hand, Japan's share is expected to decrease from 13.4% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2026."